云铝股份：绿电铝龙头，盈利持续提升-20250217

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of 18.37 CNY based on a 2025 PE of 11x [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the green aluminum sector, benefiting from its integration across the aluminum value chain, including bauxite mining, alumina production, and aluminum processing [1][12]. - The company's profitability has been steadily improving, with net profit increasing from 500 million CNY in 2019 to 3.96 billion CNY in 2023, driven by high aluminum prices and increased production [2][28]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum remains robust, with traditional sectors showing resilience and new energy applications driving growth [2][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. has been deeply involved in the electrolytic aluminum industry for many years and is recognized as a green aluminum leader in Western China [1][12]. - The company has a production capacity of 3.05 million tons of green aluminum and is the largest green low-carbon aluminum supplier in China [1][12]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from electrolytic aluminum rose from 14 billion CNY in 2019 to 21.6 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.13% [23]. - The operating cash flow has remained strong, with net cash flow from operating activities exceeding net profit, indicating a healthy financial position [29][33]. Market Demand - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by traditional sectors such as construction, transportation, and electricity, which accounted for 23.9%, 22.7%, and 21.5% of demand in 2023, respectively [2][48]. - The new energy sector, particularly solar and electric vehicles, is expected to provide significant growth in aluminum demand [2][46]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a high proportion of green electricity (approximately 80% in 2023) in its production process, which reduces costs and enhances its competitive position [3][12]. - The establishment of carbon tariffs and increasing market focus on energy consumption and carbon emissions are expected to boost the demand for green aluminum [3][12]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.6 billion CNY, 5.8 billion CNY, and 6.7 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 16.33%, 25.77%, and 15.81% [3][40].