Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [7][5]. Core Views - The company is optimistic about the order trends for 2025, expecting a significant increase in demand for its manufacturing business due to the normalization of the global footwear market [1][3]. - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 0.9-1.1 billion for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 21.5% to 31.5%, while the annual net profit for 2024 is projected to be USD 4.3-4.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 55% to 60% [1]. - The manufacturing business is expected to benefit from improved production efficiency and capacity utilization, leading to steady growth in gross and operating margins [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For January 2025, the manufacturing business revenue grew by 1.1% year-on-year, while the retail segment, represented by Bao Sheng, saw a revenue increase of 24.2% [2]. - The overall revenue for the listed company in January reached USD 800 million, marking a 9.3% year-on-year growth [2]. Operational Strategy - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in its manufacturing and retail operations, which are expected to enhance overall profitability [3]. - The manufacturing capacity remains in high demand, with strong growth in footwear shipments and a gradual narrowing of price declines [3]. Digital Transformation - The company is implementing a long-term digital transformation strategy to enhance operational excellence through digital management and automation [4]. - Integration of manufacturing management systems into a unified operational platform is aimed at improving production efficiency and investment returns [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report maintains earnings forecasts for FY24-26, estimating revenues of USD 8.18 billion, USD 9.11 billion, and USD 10.33 billion respectively, with net profits of USD 430 million, USD 500 million, and USD 580 million [5]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are USD 0.27, USD 0.31, and USD 0.36, with PE ratios of 8x, 7x, and 6x [5].
裕元集团：乐观看待2025订单趋势-20250217