Coinbase Global Inc-A：Strong 4Q24 results; favourable regulatory environment paves way for long-term growth-20250217

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Coinbase, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Coinbase reported strong 4Q24 results with total revenue growing by 138% YoY and 88% QoQ to US$2.27 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 21$352.00 from a previous US$250.00, reflecting a 28.3$274.31 [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, Coinbase's revenue is projected at US$6.564 billion, with net profit expected to reach US$2.579 billion, resulting in an EPS of US$10.43 [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 4Q24 was reported at US$1.29 billion, a 298% increase YoY, driven by strong operating leverage [1]. - The transaction revenue in 4Q24 grew by 194% YoY to US$1.56 billion, while subscription and services revenue increased by 64$641 million [6]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY25E and FY26E have been revised to US$7.204 billion and US$7.602 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 23.7% and 26.8% compared to previous estimates [7]. - The net profit for FY25E is estimated at US$1.529 billion, with an EPS of US$6.18, which is above the consensus estimate of US$5.96 [2][8]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 58.7$286.0 per share, accounting for 81% of the total valuation [9]. - The custodial and asset management business is valued at US$19.7 per share, while the interest and stablecoin business is valued at US$22.7 per share [9].