SMIC(688981) 东方证券·2025-02-17 02:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 114.63 CNY [2][5][9] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in downstream demand, leading to continuous capacity expansion, with the first quarter of 2025 not being a traditional off-season [1][8] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 37.0 billion, 56.1 billion, and 71.0 billion CNY respectively, reflecting adjustments in tax rates and minority interests [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: The company reported revenues of 49,516 million CNY in 2022, with a projected increase to 57,796 million CNY in 2024, representing a growth of 28% [4][15] - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 12,133 million CNY in 2022 to 3,699 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 5,614 million CNY in 2025 [4][15] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to decrease from 1.52 CNY in 2022 to 0.46 CNY in 2024, with a recovery to 0.70 CNY in 2025 [4][15] - Gross Margin: The gross margin is expected to decline from 38.3% in 2022 to 18.6% in 2024, before improving to 20.7% in 2025 [4][15] - Net Margin: The net margin is projected to decrease from 24.5% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 7.9% in 2025 [4][15] Capacity and Market Outlook - The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion, with a projected capital expenditure of 73.3 billion USD in 2024, aiming for a monthly capacity of 948,000 8-inch wafers by the end of the year, an 18% increase from 2023 [8][9] - The average capacity utilization rate is expected to improve to 85.6% in 2024, up by approximately 11 percentage points from the previous year [8][9] - Downstream demand is anticipated to improve due to national consumption stimulus policies, leading to increased inventory replenishment by customers [8][9]