AHHL(600761) 东吴证券·2025-02-17 12:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Heli is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Anhui Heli's collaboration with Huawei is expected to enhance its smart logistics business, potentially creating a second growth curve for the company [2][10] - The trend towards intelligent transformation in the logistics industry is anticipated to benefit traditional forklift manufacturers, including Anhui Heli, as automation solutions gain traction [3][10] - The forklift industry is expected to experience a bottoming out in demand in 2024, with potential recovery driven by domestic policy support and overseas demand revival [4][13] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17,471 million RMB in 2023 to 22,260 million RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.76% [1][20] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,278 million RMB in 2023 to 1,808 million RMB in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 40.89% in 2023 [1][20] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.43 RMB in 2023 to 2.03 RMB in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1][20] Industry Trends - The logistics industry's shift towards automation is driven by rising labor costs and a shortage of workforce, with AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) penetration expected to increase [3][10] - The global forklift market has shown a CAGR of 8% from 2014 to 2023, with domestic demand growing at a rate of 15% compared to 5% for overseas markets [4][13] - The lithium battery adoption rate in forklifts is projected to have significant growth potential, with current rates at 19% in China and 13% overseas [4][14]