Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773.HK) [3]. Core Views - Tianli International Holdings is a leading private K12 education group in China, demonstrating strong brand effects and a solid industry position. The company has successfully adjusted its business structure post-2021 regulatory changes and is expected to maintain a growth trajectory with annual expansions of 3-5 new high schools [3][31]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 6.94 billion yuan by FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.52% from FY2024 [3][34]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow to 1.34 billion yuan by FY2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 12 times in FY2025 to 7 times in FY2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2002, Tianli International Holdings has expanded from a K9 focus to a comprehensive K12 education provider, establishing 58 schools across 18 provinces by November 2024, serving over 130,000 students [3][16]. - The company has effectively adapted its business model post-2021 regulatory changes, focusing on high school and management services, which has led to a rapid recovery in performance [3][31]. Industry Analysis - The policy environment for private education is stabilizing, with strong local demand for high-quality private high schools. The government continues to support the development of private education, which is expected to drive growth in the sector [39][41]. - The competitive landscape is stable, with high entry barriers for new players, allowing established firms like Tianli to maintain their market positions [41]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, Tianli reported total revenue of 3.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and a net profit of 576 million yuan, reflecting a 72.53% growth [31][34]. - The company’s gross profit margin remained healthy at 33.7%, with significant contributions from the increase in student enrollment and the expansion of service offerings [34][36]. Growth Strategy - Tianli plans to continue its expansion by opening 3-5 new high schools annually, aiming to operate 40-50 high schools by 2027, which will provide comprehensive educational services to 60,000-80,000 high school students [3][31]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its management and operational efficiency through a light-asset model, which is expected to open new growth avenues [3][31].
天立国际控股：K12民办学校龙头品牌效应价值显现，业务转型轻资产模式开辟第二曲线-20250219