瀚蓝环境：DPS同增67%，股息率具备吸引力-20250219

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 31.10 RMB [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to distribute a cash dividend of 0.80 RMB per share for the fiscal year 2024, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 39% based on an estimated EPS of 2.03 RMB for 2024 [2]. - The company aims for a continuous increase in cash dividends, with a projected growth rate of no less than 10% for DPS from 2024 to 2026, leading to an expected dividend yield of 3.9% in 2024 and 4.3% and 4.8% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [2]. - The company has turned positive in free cash flow in 2023, reaching 4.34 billion RMB, with expectations for continued growth as capital expenditures decrease and operational cash flow increases [3]. - The company is accelerating the collection of accounts receivable, with an estimated 2.4 billion RMB expected to be collected in 2024 from previous years [4]. - The target PE for 2025 is set at 14.4 times, reflecting an increase in expected EPS for 2024-2026, with the target price adjusted to 31.10 RMB [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 12,875 million RMB in 2022, with a slight decline to 12,541 million RMB in 2023, and is projected to grow to 13,023 million RMB in 2024 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 1,146 million RMB in 2022 to 1,430 million RMB in 2023, with further growth expected to 1,651 million RMB in 2024 [6]. - The EPS is projected to rise from 1.41 RMB in 2022 to 2.03 RMB in 2024, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 14.45 in 2022 to 10.03 in 2024, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [6]. - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.52 in 2022 to 1.24 in 2024, indicating a potential undervaluation [6]. - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.96 in 2022 to 8.64 in 2024, further supporting the investment case [6].