环保公用-2026 年度策略：仓庚于飞，熠燿其羽 - 价值+ 成长共振，双碳驱动新生！20251216 摘要 欧洲碳关税和国内非电可再生能源考核强化双碳驱动，垃圾处理费 C 端 征收提升垃圾发电 ROE，炉渣涨价和国补加速增强分红潜力，垃圾焚烧 行业盈利能力有望提升。 绿电直连政策落地促进数据中心供电，固废板块出海空间广阔，瀚蓝环 境、绿色动力等公司在东盟市场表现突出，水务领域中山公用、首创环 保等公司受益于水价市场化。 双碳约束加强带来电解水制氢、生物油 SAF 和绿醇等投资机会，非电可 再生能源考核驱动生物油需求，二代油、SAF 供不应求，船运行业绿醇 投资机会显现。 设备类公司美埃科技受益于半导体和锂电资本开支，鼎津装备受益于锂 电修复，无人化环卫设备经济性拐点到来，宇通重工、静绿环境等企业 积极布局智能化。 瀚蓝环境、绿色动力等固废现金流价值标的表现突出，龙净环保因紫金 赋能绿电增长，美埃科技与鼎津装备因细分领域优势具备良好前景，朗 坤和山高环能及高能赛恩斯值得关注。 Q&A 东吴证券对环保行业 2026 年的年度策略有何主要观点？ 东吴证券对环保行业 2026 年的年度策略持积极乐观的态度，认为该板 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power Investment Corporation, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Resources Power [48]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has increased the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies and enhance their role in supporting renewable energy integration [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices, with Northeast Asia LNG prices reaching a 20-month low, driven by strong supply and mild weather conditions [12][26]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity revenue, capacity income, and ancillary service income [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yunnan Increases Coal Power Capacity Price - Yunnan has announced a new mechanism for coal power capacity pricing, allowing for full recovery of fixed costs starting in 2026, set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year [7][8]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% from green energy sources, necessitating coal power for peak load support [8]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Trends - As of December 12, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $4.07/mmBtu, down 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices fell to $10/mmBtu, a decrease of 6.19% [12][13]. - The report notes that the overall supply of natural gas remains robust, contributing to lower prices in Northeast Asia [26][28]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The power and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government meetings and policy announcements emphasize the importance of a clean, low-carbon energy system and the development of a new energy system by 2030 [40][43]. - The report includes updates on major companies, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power, highlighting their financial activities and operational performance [44][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The central economic meeting emphasized the "dual carbon" strategy, indicating a strong push towards green energy development and comprehensive green transformation in the industry [13][15]. - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in waste management, recycling, and renewable energy sectors, particularly in waste incineration and carbon monitoring equipment [15][18]. - The report notes a trend of increasing dividend payouts among solid waste companies, with the average dividend payout ratio rising from 34.3% in 2019 to 48.5% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a "dividend investment strategy" in a mature market [15][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Dual Carbon and Green Transformation - The central economic meeting outlined key initiatives for promoting energy efficiency and carbon reduction across major industries, including the establishment of a national carbon trading market and comprehensive solid waste management actions [13][15]. - The report anticipates growth in the green economy, particularly in sectors like waste incineration and recycling, driven by government policies [15][18]. Section 2: Biodiesel Market Insights - The report discusses the biodiesel market, noting a slight decrease in SAF prices while UCO prices remain strong, with UCO prices reaching $1,065 per ton, an 8.1% increase since the beginning of the year [19][22]. - The report suggests that companies involved in waste oil processing and biodiesel production will benefit from these market dynamics, particularly those with integrated operations [28]. Section 3: Policy Tracking - The report tracks domestic and international developments related to carbon neutrality, including the establishment of a carbon trading market and the EU's commitment to significant emission reductions by 2040 [31][32]. - It highlights the importance of policy frameworks in driving the green transition and the role of financial support for green projects [38]. Section 4: Company Announcements and Market Trends - The report provides updates on key companies in the environmental sector, including investment agreements and project developments that enhance market competitiveness [41][43]. - It notes that the environmental sector's valuation is currently at historical lows, suggesting potential for future growth [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The green liquid fuel market, particularly green ammonia and green methanol, is gaining traction due to supportive policies and market demand. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other agencies, has emphasized the development of these fuels as part of the clean energy transition [18][19]. - As of the end of 2024, there are 119 green ammonia projects and 165 green methanol projects in China, with respective production capacities of 20.17 million tons/year and 52.57 million tons/year. Most projects are in early stages, indicating potential for capacity release [22][28]. - The report highlights the significant role of green ammonia in the energy system, particularly in coal power plant modifications, with a target of 10% co-firing by 2024 [19]. - The report suggests that the environmental sector will maintain high growth due to increasing demands for energy efficiency and resource recycling, with a focus on water and waste incineration sectors as stable revenue generators [53]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.61% as of December 12, 2025, compared to a 0.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][13]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies include a notification from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China to support green factory construction through green finance [33]. - The ecological environment ministry is seeking public opinion on emergency control standards for water pollution, aiming to enhance environmental emergency response capabilities [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market reforms and stable cash flows [53].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment themes for 2026 in the environmental sector, focusing on overseas expansion, carbon reduction, and pollution control as key strategies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][6] - The environmental industry is experiencing a transition as domestic infrastructure peaks, with a projected 4.9% year-on-year growth in sector performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][28] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has not yet met carbon reduction targets, indicating a need for continued efforts in this area, while other environmental goals have been largely achieved [22][24] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to synergize carbon peak and neutrality goals with pollution reduction and green growth initiatives [6][24] Overseas Expansion - The report identifies significant market opportunities in Southeast Asia and Central Asia for waste incineration, with a potential market size in the hundreds of billions [7] - Indonesia's upcoming waste incineration projects are highlighted, with expectations for rapid development starting in Q1 2026, supported by sovereign fund investments [7] - Key companies positioned for overseas expansion include Weiming Environmental, China Everbright, and others [7] Carbon Reduction - The carbon market is evolving, with ongoing improvements in the carbon emission control system and an expected rise in carbon prices [8] - Non-electric green energy sectors, such as renewable energy heating and biofuels, are anticipated to benefit from policy support and growing domestic demand [8] - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy are noted for their potential in the biofuel sector, particularly in the context of EU anti-dumping influences subsiding [8] Pollution Control - The water and air sectors are expected to see continued investment in pollution control, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Aofu Technology highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report notes that the implementation of the National VI emissions standards will create opportunities in the automotive emissions control market [9] Diverse Investment Opportunities - The report outlines various investment opportunities arising from new production capabilities, cyclical trends, and debt management strategies within the environmental sector [10] - Companies involved in smart technologies and battery materials are identified as potential beneficiaries of these trends [10]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies [11][13]. Core Insights - The mechanism electricity pricing results across multiple regions are approaching their upper limits, indicating strong demand and government support for renewable energy projects [4][7]. - Natural gas prices in Europe are declining, while U.S. gas prices have reached a new high for 2023, driven by increased heating demand due to cold weather [13][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of operational efficiency in renewable energy projects, as profitability varies significantly across different regions [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Pricing - Recent mechanism electricity pricing results show that several regions, including Hebei and Ningxia, have prices close to the upper limits, reflecting strong demand and sufficient mechanism electricity indicators [4][8]. - The competitive pricing results indicate a disparity based on local consumption capacity and policy direction, with some provinces achieving significantly lower prices due to weaker demand [9][10]. 2. Natural Gas Market - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $5.19/mmBtu, marking a 12.91% increase week-on-week, while European gas prices, such as the TTF, have seen a decline [13][20]. - The report notes a 1.3% year-on-year decrease in China's natural gas consumption in October, with expectations for growth in the upcoming winter months due to heating demand [30][32]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable conditions for winter and spring generation, with recommendations for companies like Yangtze Power and Guodian Power [11]. - Thermal Power: Companies with diversified income sources are recommended, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian [11]. - Nuclear Power: Continued growth expected with new approvals, suggesting a focus on China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [11]. - Green Energy: Increased stability in project returns with recommendations for companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [11]. - Gas Companies: Recommendations include Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, benefiting from cost reductions and improved profitability [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Green City China, Jianfa International Group, New China Life Insurance, and Bank of Communications [12][42][44]. Core Views - The report highlights the increasing pressure on corporate earnings in the short term, with a focus on the potential for export recovery in the coming year [9][10]. - The real estate sector is facing downward pressure, but there are expectations for policy support to alleviate burdens on homebuyers [11]. - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing an optimized market structure, with high growth potential in the securities industry [15]. - The banking sector is expected to see accelerated valuation reassessment driven by strong allocation forces [17]. - The new energy sector is at a bottoming phase, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [20]. - The machinery sector is approaching mass production of humanoid robots, focusing on core supply chain targets [25]. - The military industry is expected to improve, with a focus on military trade, internal installations, and military-to-civilian transitions [27]. - The light industry is emphasizing opportunities in overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption [30]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The real estate sector is under increasing downward pressure, particularly in core cities, with expectations for policy measures to lower home purchase thresholds [11]. - Key companies like Green City China and Jianfa International Group are highlighted for their strong land acquisition and sales performance, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 [12][14]. Non-Bank Financial - The securities industry is expected to maintain high growth, with significant improvements in insurance companies' performance [15][16]. - New China Life Insurance is noted for its leading elasticity and potential for growth in the equity market [16]. Banking - The report emphasizes the ongoing valuation repair in the banking sector, particularly for large state-owned banks and city commercial banks [17][19]. - Bank of Communications is highlighted for its low PB valuation compared to peers, indicating potential for significant upside [19]. New Energy - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on solar, storage, and lithium battery technologies [20][21]. - Companies like Sunshine Power and Siling Co. are recommended for their growth potential in the energy storage market [22][23]. Machinery - The humanoid robot sector is approaching mass production, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic expected to benefit from this trend [25][26]. Military - The military sector is projected to see upward trends in military trade and civilian applications of military technology [27][28]. Light Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption opportunities, with companies like Simor International and Aorijin highlighted for their growth potential [30][32][34]. Environmental - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from carbon reduction policies and overseas expansion opportunities, with companies like Huanlan Environment and Ice Wheel Environment noted for their growth prospects [35][40][41].

"十五五"规划建议布局氢能，看好氢能行业长期发展 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 6 日 15666646523.tcy | 证券研究报告 | | | --- | --- | | 行业研究——周报 | | | [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | | | [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 | | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 郭雪环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 吴柏莹环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] "十五五"规划建议布局氢能，看好氢能行业长期发 展 2025 年 12 月 6 日 本期内容提要: ➢ 投资建议："十四五"国家对环境质量和工业绿色低碳发展提出更多 要求，节能 ...

"跨境理财通"是大湾区推动金融市场互联互通的重要机制之一。记者从广东证监局获悉，截至2025年9月末，粤港澳大湾区参与"跨境理财通"个人投资者 16.98万人，包括港澳投资者5.37万人，内地投资者11.61万人；"跨境理财通"投资者人数较券商试点前增长34.4%，特别是内地投资者增长57.3%。"跨境理 财通"的落地，有力地推动了金融高水平开放。 金融枢纽的建设离不开强大的金融机构。截至2025年9月底，广东辖区证券公司净资本达1393.6亿元，总资产规模1.01万亿元，净资产规模1805.75亿元， 分别较2020年末增长33.13%、90.83%和43.06%。"十四五"时期，广东辖区金融机构整体综合实力显著增强。 着力推进投顾业态发展，是广东落实资本市场投资端改革的关键环节，也是推动行业机构加快财富管理转型的重要举措。2023年，广东证监局支持广州市 推动设立广州投资顾问学院、广州投资顾问研究院、广州投顾产业链投资公司三家机构，累计为全国129家证券、基金、银行、独立销售等机构提供转型 赋能服务。 广东是我国经济第一大省，也是资本市场最为活跃的地区之一。"十四五"时期，广东辖区（不含深圳，下同）资本市 ...