Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 华安证券·2025-02-19 02:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., is a leading green aluminum enterprise in the industry, leveraging high-quality resources in Yunnan and the support of the China Aluminum Corporation [4][7] - The company has a fully integrated industrial chain from bauxite to alumina, green aluminum, and aluminum processing, with a total capacity of 1.6 million tons of bauxite, 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.05 million tons of green aluminum, and 1.57 million tons of aluminum processing products as of the first half of 2024 [4][13] - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 31.67% increase in revenue and a 52.49% increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the same period last year [4][14] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. was established in 1970 and became part of the China Aluminum Corporation in 2018, focusing on an integrated industrial chain in Yunnan [4][13] - The company’s main revenue sources are from electrolytic aluminum and aluminum processing, contributing 42.23% and 56.15% to revenue respectively in the first half of 2024 [4][17] Industry Analysis - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained, with domestic production capacity capped at around 45 million tons and utilization rates exceeding 95%, limiting growth potential [5][31] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain stable, particularly in the construction sector, which accounts for approximately 30% of downstream consumption [5][33] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 42.669 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.956 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12% and 13.4% respectively [9] - Forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.616 billion yuan, 5.714 billion yuan, and 6.974 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 8 [7][59] Production Capacity and Utilization - The company has a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 3.05 million tons, with utilization rates improving from 81.9% in 2023 to 88.57% in the first half of 2024 due to better power supply conditions [6][56] - The company is actively involved in resource exploration in Yunnan to secure high-quality bauxite resources, which are crucial for its production [6][52] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in aluminum prices and profitability for aluminum companies as alumina prices stabilize and new capacities are released in 2025 [5][37] - The company is positioned to benefit from its integrated supply chain and stable management under the China Aluminum Corporation [4][19]