恒立液压：公司信息更新报告：线性驱动项目投产顺利，丝杠第二曲线助力腾飞-20250219

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's linear drive project has been successfully put into production, completing the construction of the factory and production line, and achieving small-scale sales. Future breakthroughs are expected in the fields of industrial mother machines and humanoid robots. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained, with expected net profits of 2.601 billion, 3.049 billion, and 3.690 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37.0, 31.5, and 26.1 respectively [3][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2022 was 8,197 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. It is projected to grow to 9,979 million yuan in 2024, representing an 11.1% increase, and further to 14,015 million yuan by 2026, with an 18.9% growth [7] - The net profit for 2022 was 2,343 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%. It is expected to reach 2,601 million yuan in 2024, a 4.1% increase, and grow to 3,690 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a 21.0% increase [7] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 40.6% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2026, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 26% [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 18.5% in 2022, decreasing to 16.2% in 2024, and then recovering to 17.6% by 2026 [7] Industry Insights - The screw is identified as the most valuable component in humanoid robots, with significant cost implications. The cost of a humanoid robot is estimated at $20,000, with screws accounting for about 20% of the total cost. The penetration rate of screw solutions in domestic humanoid robot companies is expected to increase significantly [4][5] - The company has strategically positioned itself in the linear drive segment, with plans to produce various types of screws and electric cylinders, aiming for a production capacity of 10.4 million standard ball screws and 4,500 heavy-duty ball screws annually [5]