恒立液压：公司信息更新报告：线性驱动项目投产顺利，丝杠第二曲线助力腾飞-20250220

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The linear drive project has been successfully put into production, completing the construction of the factory and production line, achieving small batch sales, and is expected to make breakthroughs in the industrial mother machine and humanoid robot fields in the future. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained, with expected net profits of 2.601 billion, 3.049 billion, and 3.690 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37.0, 31.5, and 26.1 respectively [3][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2022 was 8,197 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. It is expected to grow to 9,979 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and further to 14,015 million yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 18.9% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 2,343 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%. It is projected to reach 2,601 million yuan in 2024, with a growth of 4.1%, and 3,690 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 21.0% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 40.6% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2026, while the net margin is projected to remain stable around 26% [7] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 41.1 in 2022 to 26.1 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [7] Industry Insights - The screw is identified as the most valuable component in humanoid robots, with a significant cost contribution. The cost of a humanoid robot is estimated at 20,000 USD, with screws accounting for about 20% of the total cost. The penetration rate of screw solutions in domestic humanoid robot companies is expected to increase significantly [4] - The company has made early investments in the screw sector, with a planned production capacity of 10.4 million standard ball screw electric cylinders and 4500 heavy-duty ball screw electric cylinders upon reaching full production [5]