Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 国盛证券·2025-02-19 16:39Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic green aluminum industry, leveraging over 50 years of experience in the electrolytic aluminum sector. It benefits from a comprehensive green aluminum supply chain and strong backing from the China Aluminum Corporation [1][18]. - The company has a significant cost advantage due to its high proportion of green energy usage, with over 80% of its energy sourced from renewable resources, particularly hydropower from Yunnan province [2][3]. - The expected increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization and the anticipated recovery in demand are likely to drive aluminum prices higher, enhancing the company's profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Yunnan Aluminum Factory, was established in 1970 and has been deeply involved in the electrolytic aluminum industry for over 50 years. It became a publicly listed company in 1998 and joined the China Aluminum Group in 2019, enhancing its resource and operational capabilities [1][18]. Resource Endowment and Cost Advantages - The company has excellent upstream resource endowments, primarily in the Yunnan province, with significant bauxite reserves and production capacity. The self-sufficiency rates for bauxite and alumina are 51% and 24%, respectively, while the company enjoys a competitive edge in electricity costs due to its reliance on green energy [2][3]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The company has established a production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.05 million tons of green aluminum, and 820,000 tons of carbon products. The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production is expected to improve steadily, supported by the anticipated increase in Yunnan's power supply [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling of 44 million tons, with demand shifting towards high-end markets. The report anticipates that the recovery in demand, particularly in green development sectors, will support long-term aluminum price increases [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 4.58 billion, 6.85 billion, and 7.82 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.4, 8.3, and 7.3 [4][5].