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麦当劳:2024Q4同店表现改善明显,全球同店销售同比转正-20250220
MCDMcDonald's(MCD) 兴业证券·2025-02-20 00:56

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 5mealpackagehassignificantlyboostedsamestoresales,andtheintroductionoftheMcValuemenuisexpectedtocontinuethispositivetrend.Asexternalconditionsnormalize,samestoreperformanceinregionsoutsidetheU.S.isgraduallyrecovering,withglobalsamestoresalesexpectedtoreturntopositivegrowthin2025,drivingrevenuerecovery[4][5].ThecompanysQ42024performancemetexpectations,withtotalrevenueof5 meal package has significantly boosted same-store sales, and the introduction of the McValue menu is expected to continue this positive trend. As external conditions normalize, same-store performance in regions outside the U.S. is gradually recovering, with global same-store sales expected to return to positive growth in 2025, driving revenue recovery [4][5]. - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 6.39 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of 0.3%. The operating profit was 2.87billion,ayearoveryearincreaseof2.42.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, while net profit was 2.02 billion, down 1.1% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, with a quarterly dividend of 1.77pershareandatotalannualdividendpayoutof1.77 per share and a total annual dividend payout of 4.9 billion, representing 3.5% of the total market capitalization of 221.1billion[4][5].SamestoresalesshowedsignificantimprovementinQ42024,withU.S.samestoresalesdown1.4221.1 billion [4][5]. - Same-store sales showed significant improvement in Q4 2024, with U.S. same-store sales down 1.4%, while international markets showed positive growth. Overall global same-store sales increased by 0.4% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company plans to continue its store expansion strategy, with a target of adding 2,200 new stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 45,277 stores by the end of 2025 [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 25.92 billion, a year-over-year growth of 1.7%. The net profit was 8.22billion,adeclineof2.98.22 billion, a decline of 2.9% year-over-year [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.26 billion, 28.84billion,and28.84 billion, and 30.49 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 5.2%, 5.8%, and 5.7% [5][6]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 8.70billion,8.70 billion, 9.29 billion, and $9.95 billion, with growth rates of 5.8%, 6.8%, and 7.0% [5][6]. - The company maintains a healthy operating profit margin, projected to be between 45% and 50% for 2025 [4][5].