ANGEL YEAST(600298) 中邮证券·2025-02-20 04:29Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company, Angel Yeast, is positioned as a leader in the industry due to its technological barriers and global layout, being the largest YE supplier and the second-largest yeast supplier globally. The company has a significant market share in both domestic (55%) and global (over 19%) markets, supported by high R&D investment for high-value product development [4][5] - The industry is experiencing steady demand expansion, driven by health-conscious consumption trends that favor natural yeast over chemical additives. The global baking market has grown from 492.9 billion in 2023, with a projected annual growth rate of 5%. The Chinese baking market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 6.2% by 2026 [5] - The company is expected to see earnings elasticity in 2025 due to a combination of long-term growth logic (industry growth and global expansion) and short-term catalysts (cost benefits and product upgrades) [4][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price is ¥36.40, with a total market capitalization of ¥316 billion and a circulating market capitalization of ¥311 billion. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.76 [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of ¥10.912 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.05%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are ¥15.270 billion, ¥17.512 billion, and ¥19.609 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 12.43%, 14.69%, and 11.97% [5][9] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be ¥1.372 billion, ¥1.659 billion, and ¥1.994 billion, with growth rates of 8.04%, 20.89%, and 20.21% [9][11] Market Dynamics - The company is benefiting from a decline in molasses costs, which significantly impacts its gross margin. The molasses prices are expected to decrease further due to increased domestic sugarcane production and reduced downstream application scenarios [6][8] - The company is also focusing on product structure upgrades and strategic pricing adjustments to stimulate domestic market growth, while its overseas market continues to expand, with nearly 40% of revenue coming from international markets in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.77% [8][9]