UIGreen(688661) 国金证券·2025-02-20 08:42Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has entered the supply chain of international advanced MEMS manufacturers and has accumulated high-quality customer resources, demonstrating strong market competitiveness in the domestic MEMS field. The MEMS business constitutes the company's core revenue, accounting for approximately 77% of total revenue in 1H24 [1]. - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of weak recovery in 2024, driven by a resurgence in consumer electronics demand and rapid development in AI. The company expects a reduction in losses for 2024, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -9 million and -6 million yuan, a decrease in losses compared to the previous year [1]. - The company is a key supplier of chip testing probes to NVIDIA, with expectations for increased average selling prices (ASP) as AI chip iterations accelerate. The global semiconductor testing probe market is projected to grow from 1.043 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.51% [2][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company's MEMS business is its fundamental revenue source, with 1H24 revenue of approximately 177 million yuan [1]. - The company has established itself as a supplier for major consumer electronics brands, including Apple, Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi, and OPPO [1]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover in 2024, with the company actively expanding its market and optimizing its product structure [1]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of -0.08 billion, 1.08 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of -0.07, 0.93, and 1.63 yuan [3]. - The report assigns a 36x PE valuation for 2026, resulting in a target price of 58.75 yuan [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the semiconductor chip testing probe business are 0.98 billion, 2.90 billion, and 3.84 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026, reflecting significant growth [57]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leading domestic semiconductor testing probe enterprise, with a solid foundation in MEMS precision electronic components [32]. - The demand for MEMS precision components is gradually recovering, and the chip testing probe business is expected to open a second growth curve [32]. - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of international semiconductor giants, enhancing its growth prospects [32]. R&D and Product Development - The company emphasizes R&D investment, with a notable increase in R&D expenses from 2019 to 2023, reflecting its commitment to innovation [39][46]. - The company is developing MEMS wafer testing probes and substrate-level testing probes, which are expected to enhance its market competitiveness and growth potential [54][56].