高盛：寒武纪

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Cambricon (688256.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb607.80, reflecting a downside of 1.7% from the current price of Rmb618.51 [14][16]. Core Insights - The collaboration between Nanjing Intelligent Computing Center and Cambricon to establish a data center utilizing local chips and computing power is expected to enhance the retail industry's AI capabilities, particularly through the DeepSeek foundation model [1]. - The revenue guidance for Q4 2024 is projected between Rmb885 million and Rmb1,015 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 57% to 80%, with a net income of Rmb284 million, marking a significant recovery from a loss of Rmb37 million in Q4 2023 [2][3]. - The report highlights the positive impact of generative AI on Cambricon's market expansion, enabling clients to leverage AI across various applications [2][3]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The earnings revision indicates a reduction in the expected net loss for 2024 to Rmb433 million from a previous estimate of Rmb617 million, driven by stronger-than-expected guidance and the growth of generative AI applications [4][6]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been increased by 9%, 6%, and 4% respectively, reflecting the anticipated demand and cost-saving potential in marketing [6][9]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a discounted EV/EBITDA methodology to derive the target price, applying a multiple of 77x EV/EBITDA for the 2030E EBITDA, which has been raised by 4% [9][17]. - The target EV/EBITDA multiple is based on comparisons with local semiconductor peers, with an assumption of a 23% EBITDA growth rate in the outer years and a sustained EBITDA margin of 41% [9][17]. - The updated target price of Rmb607.80 implies a valuation of 77x 2025E EV/Sales, consistent with historical trading ranges [9][17].