兖煤澳大利亚：Dividend resumed with 56% pay-out ratio-20250221

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Yancoal Australia (YAL) with a target price revised down to HK$36 from HK$38, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of HK$28.70 [3][29]. Core Insights - YAL's net profit for 2024 was A$1.2 billion, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, but 8% above estimates due to a significant foreign exchange gain of A$149 million. The company declared a final dividend of A$0.52 per share, with a pay-out ratio of 56%, aligning with its dividend policy and boosting investor confidence [1][9]. - The guidance for 2025 indicates stable output and unit costs compared to 2024, although capital expenditures are expected to increase. Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 13% and 12% respectively, primarily due to lower coal average selling prices (ASP) and slightly higher cost assumptions [1][29]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was A$6.86 billion, down 12$176 per tonne. Other income surged fivefold to A$159 million, driven by the aforementioned FX gain [9][10]. - The company achieved a unit cash cost of A$86 per tonne in 2H24, remaining stable year-on-year, while net cash at the end of 2024 stood at A$2.35 billion, representing 30$1.016 billion, reflecting a 16.4% decline from FY24, with a projected EPS of A$0.77. For FY26, net profit is expected to rise slightly to A$1.075 billion, with an EPS of A$0.81 [2][32]. - The report outlines a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of -4.5% for FY25, followed by slight increases of 0.8% and 2.2% in FY26 and FY27 respectively [2][32]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is approximately 6.3x for FY24, with a projected decrease to 7.6x for FY25. The dividend yield is expected to decrease from 9.0% in FY24 to 6.6% in FY25 [2][32]. - The report emphasizes that despite the earnings cut, the current valuation remains attractive, with a yield exceeding 6% and a P/E ratio below 8x for FY25 [1][29].