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兖煤澳大利亚：股息恢复，支付比率为56%。-20250221
03668YANCOAL AUS(03668) 招银国际·2025-02-21 05:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (YAL) with a target price adjusted to HK36fromHK36 from HK38 [1][32]. Core Insights - YAL's net profit for 2024 reached A1.2billion,a331.2 billion, a 33% decline year-on-year, but exceeded expectations by 8% due to unexpected foreign exchange gains of A149 million [1][2]. - The company announced a final dividend of A0.52pershare,aligningwithitsdividendpolicyandexpectedtoboostinvestorconfidence[1].−YAL′sproductionguidancefor2025remainssimilarto2024,withanincreaseincapitalexpenditureanticipated[1][2].−Theaveragesellingpriceofcoalhasdecreased,impactingrevenueforecasts,leadingtoadownwardrevisionofearningsestimatesfor2025Eand2026Eby130.52 per share, aligning with its dividend policy and expected to boost investor confidence [1]. - YAL's production guidance for 2025 remains similar to 2024, with an increase in capital expenditure anticipated [1][2]. - The average selling price of coal has decreased, impacting revenue forecasts, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates for 2025E and 2026E by 13% and 12% respectively [1][32]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 decreased by 12% to A6.86 billion, despite a 14% increase in coal sales volume to 37.7 million tons, offset by a 24% drop in average selling price to A176perton[2][4].−ThecompanyreportedastableunitcashcostofA176 per ton [2][4]. - The company reported a stable unit cash cost of A86 per ton in the second half of 2024, with a significant cash balance of A2.35billion,representing302.35 billion, representing 30% of its current market capitalization [2][4]. - The earnings forecast for 2025E is A1.016 billion, reflecting a 16.4% decline from 2024, with a projected revenue of A6.55billion[4][35].OperationalGuidance−YAL′s2025productionguidanceissetbetween35millionto39milliontons,withoperatingcashcostsexpectedtorangefromA6.55 billion [4][35]. Operational Guidance - YAL's 2025 production guidance is set between 35 million to 39 million tons, with operating cash costs expected to range from A89 to A97perton[2][35].−CapitalexpenditureisprojectedtobebetweenA97 per ton [2][35]. - Capital expenditure is projected to be between A750 million to A900million,indicatingayear−on−yearincreaseof6900 million, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6% to 28% [2][35]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that YAL's valuation is not overly inflated, with a projected P/E ratio of less than 8 times for 2025E and a yield exceeding 6% [1][32]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HK37.9 billion, with a current share price of HK$28.70 [5].