HHKJ(002296) 中原证券·2025-02-21 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [21]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 247 to 312 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 90%, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 111.16% to 169.51% [6]. - The company is actively expanding into new business areas such as energy storage equipment and smart microgrid technology, which may provide additional growth opportunities [8]. - The railway equipment renewal and transformation demand is gradually being released, supported by a historical high in national railway fixed asset investment in 2024, which reached 850.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [12][9]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 54.09% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 10.98 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 28.34%, up 3.51 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 740 million yuan in 2023 to 962 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 30% [12]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 275 million yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15.99 [12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a strong reputation within the national railway industry, with significant advantages in its comprehensive monitoring system products, particularly in the Henan region [9]. - The company serves major clients including the China National Railway Group and various urban rail transit groups, positioning it well within the growing market for railway and urban transit solutions [9]. - The company is leveraging advanced technologies such as AI, cloud platforms, and big data to enhance its product offerings, which may lead to new business growth points [9]. Industry Outlook - The urban rail transit sector is expected to see continued high investment, with over 1,000 kilometers of new operational lines anticipated in 2025, contributing to a robust market environment for the company [12]. - The overall investment in the railway and urban rail transit sectors is projected to remain high, providing substantial opportunities for the company to capitalize on equipment upgrades and new projects [12].