BABA(HK:09988) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-02-22 00:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Alibaba's e-commerce profitability has exceeded expectations, with a comprehensive focus on AI driving a reassessment of value [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 1,003.56 billion in FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [7] - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2025-2027 is set at HKD 151.73 billion, HKD 170.68 billion, and HKD 189.13 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -3.7%, 12.5%, and 10.8% respectively [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2025Q3 revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 6%, outperforming Bloomberg consensus expectations [5] - The customer management revenue for Taobao increased by 9.4% year-on-year, driven by the contribution from technology service fees and improved penetration rates [5] - The international business group reported a revenue growth of 32% year-on-year, while the cloud intelligence group saw a 13% increase in revenue, with AI-related products experiencing triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [5] Strategic Focus - The long-term goal for Taobao remains stable market share, with an expected recovery in monetization rates in 2025 due to the iteration of advertising products and increased technology service fees [6] - The international e-commerce segment is expected to achieve breakeven in FY2026 for its B2C business [6] - Significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure are anticipated, with projected expenditures over the next three years exceeding the total of the past decade [6] Shareholder Returns - The remaining share buyback program is valued at USD 20.7 billion, approximately 6% of the current market capitalization, valid until March 2027 [6]