萤石网络2024Q4快报点评：拥抱AI，积极向上可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company is positioned to benefit from AI and cloud services, indicating a dual driving force for growth. Despite a prolonged stock price correction, the revenue remains stable, and the company is expected to see improvements in profit margins as operational adjustments and cost pressures ease in 2025. The hardware business, particularly in cameras, home entry systems, and robots, is anticipated to achieve scale effects, making it a key area of focus [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.48 billion yuan (up 11.1% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan (down 20.0% year-on-year). The full year 2024 revenue is projected at 5.44 billion yuan (up 12.4% year-on-year) with a net profit of 500 million yuan (down 10.5% year-on-year) [6][9]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 5.44 billion yuan, 6.30 billion yuan, and 7.17 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 15.8%, and 13.8% [6][9]. Revenue Analysis - The camera business is expected to show slight growth in 2024, benefiting from online subsidies. The home entry business, particularly smart locks, is experiencing significant growth, with online sales increasing by 145% for the company's brand, positioning it as a market leader. The robot and smart wearable segments are also expected to grow, with a focus on cleaning robots and AI-driven elderly care solutions. The cloud services sector is anticipated to grow faster in the B2B segment compared to B2C [6][9]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 8.7%, showing a recovery from previous quarters. The year-on-year decline in net profit margin is attributed to the increased proportion of lower-margin new businesses and the impact of marketing expenses related to new product launches and overseas expansion. The report indicates that profitability is expected to improve in 2025 as the company achieves breakeven in high-growth segments [6][9].