Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [1] - The significant growth in 2024 is attributed to the continuous expansion of brand influence, product optimization, and channel expansion [2] - The company plans to launch 161 new products and iterate 167 existing products in 2024, maintaining a high frequency of product updates [2] - The company's direct sales model is expected to contribute to substantial profit elasticity, leading to a net profit forecast that exceeds expectations [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 85.91 billion, 136.77 billion, and 179.18 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 170%, 59%, and 31% [3] - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.473 billion, 2.506 billion, and 3.426 billion yuan, with growth rates of 254%, 70%, and 37% [3] - The company's P/E ratios based on the closing price on February 21 are projected to be 58, 34, and 25 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin has remained stable between 41% and 43% since 2020, with net margins increasing to 13.1% and 16.7% in 2023 and the first half of 2024 [2] - The company plans to increase its store count by 7 in 2024 and optimize 4 existing stores [2] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is projected to improve significantly, reaching 2.343 billion yuan by 2026 [7]
老铺黄金：2024业绩预告点评：业绩超预期，品牌势能持续释放-20250223