SMIC(00981) 兴证国际证券·2025-02-23 02:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market indices [6]. Core Insights - The company, SMIC, has shown steady growth in its 12-inch wafer business, with quarterly revenue surpassing 2.207 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is expected to exceed guidance, reaching 22.6%, which is higher than the previously indicated range of 18%-20%. This improvement is attributed to favorable product mix and structure [3][4]. - The company anticipates a strong demand for replenishment in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic substitution projects entering mass production and government subsidy policies [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue Projections: The total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 8.030 billion in 2024, 11.589 billion in 2026, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% from 2024 to 2026 [3][4]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline to 774 million in 2025 and 7.326 billion, with depreciation expenses expected to rise by approximately 20% [3][4].