哔哩哔哩-W：用户价值显性释放，迈入盈利时代-20250223

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company has entered a profitable era, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 7.734 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16%. The Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 0.452 billion CNY, marking a turnaround to profitability for the first time in GAAP quarterly results. For the full year, revenue was 26.832 billion CNY, up 19% year-on-year, with Non-GAAP net loss narrowing to 0.039 billion CNY, a 99% improvement year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance - Gross margin has been on an upward trend for 10 consecutive quarters, reaching 36.1% in Q4 2024, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses (advertising and gaming) and optimized operating costs. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased to 16%, 6.5%, and 11.9% respectively [4]. - The company generated a healthy operating cash flow of 6.015 billion CNY for the year, indicating a stable positive cash flow trend [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue grew rapidly, with Q4 revenue of 2.389 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24%, accounting for 31% of total revenue. For the full year, advertising revenue reached 8.189 billion CNY, up 28% year-on-year [4]. - Gaming revenue saw significant growth, with Q4 revenue of 1.798 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 79%, driven by the success of the SLG mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [5]. - Value-added services and IP ecosystem revenue reached 3.083 billion CNY in Q4, an 8% year-on-year increase, with a total of 22.7 million premium members [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.684 billion CNY, 33.494 billion CNY, and 36.140 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 1.972 billion CNY, 3.143 billion CNY, and 3.975 billion CNY for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 30.50, 19.14, and 15.13 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][10].