TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 东方证券·2025-02-23 05:29Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum, with a target price of 10.17 CNY based on a 9x PE valuation for 2025 [1][4]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is positioned as a leading integrated aluminum industry player with significant overseas resource investments and a strong vertical integration model, which is expected to drive continuous growth in performance [2][4][20]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 CNY, 1.13 CNY, and 1.32 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by lower alumina costs and stable aluminum prices [4][6]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 34.18 billion CNY, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach 4.32 billion CNY, marking a 95.7% increase [6][23]. Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum has established a comprehensive aluminum production chain, including electrolytic aluminum, power generation, and alumina, making it one of the few companies with a complete vertical integration advantage in China [15][20]. - The company has a total share capital of 465.19 million shares, with a market capitalization of 40.15 billion CNY as of February 20, 2025 [1]. Industry Analysis - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is severely constrained, with the industry reaching a production capacity ceiling of approximately 45.1 million tons, limiting future growth in supply [39][42]. - The report indicates that the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow steadily, driven by emerging sectors, despite a decline in traditional sectors [39][40]. Production and Capacity - Tianshan Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is currently at 1.2 million tons, with an additional 200,000 tons of compliant capacity pending construction [8][20]. - The company has made significant investments in overseas alumina resources, securing exclusive purchasing rights for alumina from projects in Guinea and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance its cost advantages [8][20].