HKEX(00388) 开源证券·2025-02-23 23:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the optimization of the stock market settlement fee structure, which will not change the fee rate but will lower transaction costs for small trades, thereby promoting retail trading activity. The average fee rate is expected to remain unchanged, benefiting market liquidity [4][5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in trading sentiment for Hong Kong stocks, projecting an increase in average daily trading (ADT) volumes from 1,320 billion HKD in 2024 to 2,000 billion HKD in 2025, followed by a slight decline to 1,800 billion HKD in 2026. This is expected to lead to an increase in net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4][6]. - The report suggests that the active performance of technology stocks and a revival in Hong Kong IPOs will likely result in improved performance and valuation for the exchange, leading to a "Davis Double" effect [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report provides financial projections indicating that revenue is expected to grow from 20,516 million HKD in 2023 to 28,040 million HKD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 24.1% in 2025 [7]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 12,986 million HKD in 2024 to 16,484 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.9% [7]. - The report also includes estimates for earnings per share (EPS), which are expected to rise from 10.2 HKD in 2024 to 13.0 HKD in 2025 [7]. Market Activity - The report notes that the average daily trading volume (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 1,320 billion HKD in 2024 and 2,000 billion HKD in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in market activity [4][6]. - The report highlights that the trading sentiment has improved, with recent data showing a substantial increase in ADT to 3,358 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 232% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 34.2 in 2024 to 27.0 in 2025, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [7]. - The report also mentions that the current P/E ratio (TTM) stands at 37.5, which is within the 48th percentile of the past five years, indicating room for further valuation expansion [6].