Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 19.86, reflecting a potential upside of 10.9% based on a 13.0x 2025E PER [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's operations are expected to be impacted in the short term due to factors such as strict medical insurance cost control and weak consumer spending power among end patients, leading to a downward revision of revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 by 6.5% and 7.5% respectively [1][2]. - The implementation of immediate medical insurance settlement is anticipated to alleviate financial pressure on medical institutions in the long run, but the actual benefits may take time to materialize due to varying local insurance fund conditions [2]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards by 5.3% and 5.7%, with net profit forecasts adjusted down by 7.4% and 8.3% respectively, while the projected CAGR for net profit from 2023 to 2026 is estimated at 13.3% [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,196 million in 2022 to RMB 6,386 million by 2026, with a CAGR of 18.6% for 2024 and 20.3% for 2025 [3][7]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to increase from RMB 477 million in 2022 to RMB 994 million in 2026, with growth rates of 11.6% for 2024 and 17.9% for 2025 [3][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.77 in 2022 to RMB 1.57 in 2026, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 21.6 in 2022 to 10.6 in 2026 [3][7].
海吉亚医疗：预计短期内经营仍受医保控费等因素影响-20250224