Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in compliant vaping technology, with significant growth potential in the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) segment [3]. Market Overview - The global new tobacco market is estimated at approximately $76.9 billion in 2023, with HNB and e-cigarettes accounting for 45% and 28% of the market, respectively [4][14]. - The penetration rate of new tobacco products among smokers is only 8.1%, indicating substantial room for growth [15]. Regional Analysis - United States: The largest market for new tobacco, valued at $24.8 billion in 2023, with HNB market potential expected to increase following patent resolutions between major tobacco companies [23][27]. - Europe: The market reached $31 billion in 2023, with a high acceptance of HNB products, particularly in Eastern Europe [5]. - Japan and South Korea: Dominant markets for HNB, with respective market sizes of $11.7 billion and $2.6 billion in 2023, showing strong growth trends [5]. Competitive Landscape - Major tobacco companies like PMI and BAT are leading the transition to new tobacco products, with significant market shares in the HNB segment [6]. - The company holds approximately 13.7% of the global e-vapor device market, with a focus on expanding its HNB product offerings [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $1.304 billion, $1.578 billion, and $2.040 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.21, 0.26, and 0.33 [8]. - The estimated market value for the company is expected to reach between HKD 714 billion and HKD 1,020 billion by 2025, with a PE ratio ranging from 45 to 65 [8]. Growth Drivers - The growth is driven by the industry's beta benefits and the anticipated regulatory clarity, alongside the commercialization of HNB products for major clients [8].
思摩尔国际：全球合规雾化龙头，HNB打开成长空间-20250224