LZJT(300428) 华创证券·2025-02-25 07:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high revenue of 27.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 691 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 587 million yuan, reflecting a 13% increase [1][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for this quarter was 197 million yuan, up 3% year-on-year and 78% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding expectations [1][7]. - The report highlights several factors contributing to the company's strong performance, including improved capacity utilization, reduced foreign exchange losses, and an expanded price differential between domestic and international aluminum prices [7]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 was 23.37 billion yuan, with projections of 27.25 billion yuan for 2024, 27.77 billion yuan for 2025, and 31.86 billion yuan for 2026. The corresponding year-on-year growth rates are 9.3%, 16.6%, 1.9%, and 14.7% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 606 million yuan, with estimates of 691 million yuan for 2024, 758 million yuan for 2025, and 892 million yuan for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 23.0%, 14.1%, 9.7%, and 17.8% respectively [3][8]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.96 yuan for 2023, increasing to 1.09 yuan in 2024, 1.20 yuan in 2025, and 1.41 yuan in 2026 [3][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite previous pressures on performance due to capacity ramp-up and foreign exchange factors, the company's Q4 results indicate a recovery and improvement in performance. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 691 million yuan, 758 million yuan, and 892 million yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14%, 10%, and 18% [7][8]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 22.2 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.6 times [1][7].