SRBC(600039) 国金证券·2025-02-25 09:27Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.55 RMB based on a 9.4x valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is well-positioned in the context of the Western Development Strategy, with strong infrastructure demand in Sichuan, which is outperforming other traditional regions [4]. - The high shareholding and dividend payout from the controlling shareholder, Shudao Group, continue to empower the company, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 6.44% for 2024 [2][4]. - The company has shown signs of operational recovery and is expanding its international footprint, particularly in regions along the Belt and Road Initiative [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Sichuan's Infrastructure Development - Sichuan's transportation investment has maintained stable growth, outpacing national levels, with plans to expand the total highway network to approximately 20,000 kilometers by 2035 [1][22]. - As of 2024, the total length of highways in Sichuan has surpassed 10,000 kilometers, indicating significant growth potential in the coming years [1][22]. Section 2: Empowerment from Controlling Shareholder - Since 2020, Shudao Group has increased its shareholding from 41.89% to 79.56% by various means, enhancing its influence over the company [2][23]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a commitment to distribute no less than 50% of its net profit as dividends from 2022 to 2024 [2][34]. - In 2023, Sichuan Road and Bridge accounted for 43.2% of Shudao Group's revenue, significantly contributing to the group's profitability [2][39]. Section 3: Operational Recovery and International Expansion - The company has experienced significant stock price appreciation since the controlling shareholder's increased stake, with a cumulative increase of 265% from January 2020 to January 2025 [3][43]. - The company is actively pursuing international projects, including a major contract in Tunisia, marking its expansion into overseas markets [3][4]. Section 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 7.51 billion, 7.92 billion, and 8.32 billion RMB, respectively, with a dynamic PE ratio of 8x for these years [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential driven by infrastructure demand in Sichuan and the ongoing support from its controlling shareholder [4].