SRBC(600039) 国金证券·2025-02-25 10:23Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.55 RMB based on a 9.4x valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is well-positioned in the context of the Western Development Strategy, with strong infrastructure demand in Sichuan outperforming other traditional regions [4]. - The high shareholding and dividend payout from the controlling shareholder, Shudao Group, continue to empower the company, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 6.44% for 2024 [2][4]. - The company has shown signs of operational recovery and is expanding its international footprint, particularly in regions along the Belt and Road Initiative [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Sichuan's Infrastructure Development - Sichuan is a key area for the implementation of national strategies such as the Western Development and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, with stable growth in transportation investment since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The total length of highways in Sichuan has surpassed 10,000 kilometers, with plans to reach approximately 20,000 kilometers by 2035, indicating significant growth potential [1][22]. 2. Empowerment from Controlling Shareholder - Since 2020, Shudao Group has increased its shareholding from 41.89% to 79.56% by October 2024, enhancing its influence over the company [2][23]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a commitment to distribute no less than 50% of its net profit as dividends from 2022 to 2024 [2][34]. - In 2023, Sichuan Road and Bridge accounted for 43.2% of Shudao Group's revenue and 75.6% of its profit, highlighting its importance to the group [2][39]. 3. Operational Recovery and International Expansion - The company has experienced significant stock price appreciation since the controlling shareholder's increased stake, with a cumulative increase of 265% from January 2020 to January 2025 [3][43]. - The company is actively pursuing international projects, including a major contract in Tunisia, which is the largest project awarded to China in Africa in 2023 [3][4]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 7.51 billion, 7.92 billion, and 8.32 billion RMB, respectively, with a dynamic PE ratio of 8x for these years [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential and operational recovery, expecting a return to profit growth [4].