HBYH(000422) 华安证券·2025-02-25 08:23Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company announced an updated shareholder return policy, increasing the cash dividend ratio to "not less than 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders" for the next three years, reflecting a commitment to enhancing investor returns and attracting long-term capital [5] - The demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain strong due to tight upstream supply and increasing downstream demand during the spring farming season, supporting high price levels [6] - The company’s core products include diammonium phosphate, urea, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), with urea prices currently at a low point, but expected to rebound as the spring farming season begins [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.088 billion, 1.186 billion, and 1.381 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 140.1%, 9.0%, and 16.4% [9] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 18.106 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [10] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 12.7% in 2023 to 17.9% in 2026 [10] Market Conditions - The international market for diammonium phosphate is showing a price increase, with the highest FOB price recorded at 625.2 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6] - The domestic urea market is characterized by a significant inventory level, but the demand is anticipated to rise with the onset of the spring farming season, leading to a potential price recovery [8]