TRIP.COM(TCOM) 招银国际·2025-02-26 00:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US57.30 [4][20]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported a total revenue of RMB12.8 billion for 4Q24, representing a 23% year-over-year increase, which was 4% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB2.8 billion, also exceeding consensus by 4% due to better-than-expected operating expenses [1]. - For 2024, Trip.com achieved a revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, totaling RMB53.4 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit growing by 23% and 38% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year for 1Q25, aligning with consensus expectations, driven by solid booking volume growth in the domestic hotel business [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, Trip.com’s non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) was 21.6%, slightly better than consensus, while the gross profit margin (GPM) was 79.1%, which was below expectations [3]. - The company plans to increase investments to support long-term growth, which may lead to short-term margin pressures but is expected to enhance overall business performance in the future [3]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased by 1% to RMB61.6 billion, while the non-GAAP net profit forecast has been reduced by 1% due to anticipated slower growth in the outbound travel segment [12]. - The report estimates that Trip.com’s international business will see a revenue growth of 60% year-over-year in 2025, supported by increased investments [2]. Market Position - Trip.com’s outbound travel bookings have recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels in 4Q24, outperforming the overall market by approximately 30-40 percentage points [2]. - The company’s share price has dropped by 11% post-results, which the report suggests has already priced in concerns regarding potential margin contraction in 2025 [1].