Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% within the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical is expected to experience a decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2024, with a forecasted decrease of 26% year-on-year to 4.35 billion RMB, primarily due to weak sales in finished drugs [1][3]. - The company anticipates that new product sales will reach 2 billion RMB in fiscal year 2024, with plans to double this figure in fiscal year 2025, driven by several innovative products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges faced in traditional drug sales, CSPC is expected to recover positive sales and net profit growth in 2025, supported by new product contributions and licensing agreements [2][3]. Financial Summary - For fiscal year 2024, CSPC's revenue is projected to decline by 7.7% to 29.04 billion RMB, while net profit is expected to drop by 27.5% [3][14]. - The company forecasts a revenue increase of 4.6% and a net profit increase of 14.7% in fiscal year 2025, with a target price maintained at 5.97 HKD [3][4]. - The financial outlook includes a projected operating profit of 6.42 billion RMB for fiscal year 2025, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [3][14]. Sales Performance - Finished drug sales are expected to decline by 7% in fiscal year 2024, with significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales due to pricing pressures [1][3]. - The oncology segment is projected to see a 28% decrease in revenue, while cardiovascular drug sales are expected to decline by 15% [1][3]. Product Development - CSPC has several innovative assets in clinical trials and has successfully licensed out multiple products, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [2][3]. - The company is preparing to present data from its EGFR ADC Phase I clinical trial at the upcoming AACR conference, which could further enhance its product pipeline [2].
石药集团：在定价压力下，收益下降。-20250226