AHHL(600761) 国信证券·2025-02-26 10:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Anhui Heli [3] Core Views - Anhui Heli is a leading state-owned enterprise in the forklift industry, benefiting from trends in electrification and globalization, with smart logistics opening new growth opportunities [1][2] - The company has shown steady revenue and net profit growth, with a CAGR of 12.56% and 17.01% respectively from 2018 to 2023 [23] - The global penetration rate of electric forklifts has increased significantly, from 27% in 2013 to 68% in 2023, indicating a strong trend towards electrification [1][47] Company Overview - Anhui Heli has a long history, established in 1958, and has maintained a strong position in the global forklift manufacturing industry [14][15] - The company operates in four main business segments: industrial vehicle assembly, components, aftermarket services, and smart logistics systems, with a comprehensive product range [17][19] Industry Analysis - The forklift industry is experiencing upward trends due to internationalization and the shift towards lithium battery technology [32] - The global forklift market is growing steadily, with 2023 global and Chinese sales reaching 214,000 and 117,000 units respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 8.18% and 15.41% from 2017 to 2023 [38][39] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for Anhui Heli for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.422 billion, 1.648 billion, and 1.904 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13, 12, and 10 [3] - The reasonable valuation range for the company is set between 24.05 and 27.75 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2025 [3] Market Trends - The report highlights the significant growth potential for Chinese forklift manufacturers in international markets, with a current global market share of approximately 29.61% [2] - The company has established a robust overseas sales network, with over 300 sales agents in more than 100 countries [2]