高盛：我们看好铜价的三大驱动因素

Investment Rating - The report reinitiates coverage of copper with a medium-run price forecast range of $10,500 to$11,500 per tonne, with average price forecasts of $9,740 per tonne for 2025 and$11,175 per tonne for 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the copper market [3][10]. Core Insights - The copper market is expected to experience deficits of 180,000 tonnes in 2025 and 250,000 tonnes in 2026, driven by strong electrification demand, China stimulus, and supply constraints [3][10][49]. - Electrification demand is projected to account for all copper demand growth through 2030, with significant contributions from grid investments, which are expected to add over 300,000 tonnes annually to global copper demand [3][12][17]. - China’s stimulus measures are anticipated to contribute 35% to global copper demand growth in 2025, outweighing the negative impact of tariffs [27][28]. Summary by Sections Electrification Demand - The electrification megatrend is reshaping copper demand, with a notable 4% year-on-year increase in refined copper demand in China despite a 10% drop in the construction sector [3][10]. - Grid investment is expected to rise significantly, with the US utilities capex forecasted to increase from an average of $103 billion (2020-2023) to$145 billion (2024-2027), a 40% increase [16][17]. China Copper Stimulus - China’s stimulus is projected to add 2 percentage points to copper demand growth, while tariffs are expected to reduce it by only 0.8 percentage points [27][28]. - The report forecasts a 4% growth in China’s refined copper demand in 2025, driven by structural electrification and stimulus measures [3][10]. Supply Constraints - The report highlights that copper demand will require substantial growth in mine and scrap supply, with a forecasted increase of 4 million tonnes by 2030 [3][10]. - The price of $10,500 per tonne is deemed necessary for the development of new mine capacity to avoid significant deficits by the early 2030s [3][42]. Price Forecast - The copper price is expected to rise above$10,500 per tonne in Q1 2026, with a cap at $11,500 per tonne due to substitution effects with aluminum [3][10][42]. - The report indicates that the copper price will establish a new floor of$10,500 per tonne by 2026, driven by rising capital and operational expenditures in mining [42][43]. Market Balance - The copper market is projected to shift from a surplus in 2024 to deficits in 2025 and 2026, with refined production expected to increase while consumption outpaces production [49][59]. - The report anticipates a record high annual average copper price in 2025 and 2026, with higher prices leading to an acceleration in scrap supply and firmer mine supply growth through 2030 [49].