AHHL(600761) 国信证券·2025-02-26 12:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Heli (600761.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [3]. Core Views - Anhui Heli is a leading state-owned enterprise in the forklift industry, focusing on electric and international expansion, with smart logistics opening new growth opportunities. The company has shown steady revenue and net profit growth, with a CAGR of 12.56% and 17.01% from 2018 to 2023, respectively [1][23]. - The global penetration rate of electric forklifts has increased from 27% in 2013 to 68% in 2023, indicating a strong trend towards electrification and lithium battery adoption in the industry. There remains significant room for growth in China's electric forklift market, particularly in high-value balance forklifts [1][47]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix in smart logistics, with revenue from this segment growing by 42% year-on-year in 2023, and AGV sales increasing by 127% [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anhui Heli has a long history dating back to 1958 and has maintained a strong position in the global forklift manufacturing industry, ranking among the top seven manufacturers since 2016 [14][15]. - The company operates in four main business segments: industrial vehicle assembly, components, aftermarket services, and smart logistics systems, with over 600 product types and 5000 models [17][18]. Industry Analysis - The forklift industry is benefiting from internationalization and the trend towards lithium battery adoption, with a positive outlook for growth driven by the recovery of manufacturing and logistics sectors [32][40]. - The global forklift market is projected to grow steadily, with sales increasing from 133.38 thousand units in 2017 to 213.74 thousand units in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 8.18% [38]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 17.47 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, with net profit reaching 1.28 billion yuan, up 40.89% [23][24]. - The overseas revenue has significantly increased, with a CAGR of 30.52% from 2018 to 2023, indicating a growing international presence [23]. Profitability and Valuation - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin of 21.53% and a net margin of 8.82% in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting historical highs [27]. - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is between 24.05 and 27.75 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2025 [3].