Xianhe(603733) 信达证券·2025-02-26 12:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with contributions from its Guangxi and Hubei bases [2] - The price of paper products is anticipated to increase slightly due to seasonal demand, supported by rising pulp prices [2] - The company has a clear growth path with significant production capacity expansion planned for 2024 and 2025, leading to a projected paper production growth rate of over 30% in 2025 [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability, with net profits projected to reach 1.06 billion, 1.44 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.64 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from 664 million yuan in 2023 to 1.79 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59.8% in 2024 [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2026, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [4] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 21.94 in 2023 to 8.13 in 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][7]