稳健医疗：健康消费引领增长，医疗耗材持续向上-20250227

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience rapid earnings growth in 2025, driven by improvements in both its consumer goods and medical supplies businesses. The consumer goods segment is projected to achieve a CAGR of approximately 14% from 2024 to 2026, while the medical supplies segment is anticipated to stabilize and grow healthily following the acquisition of GRI, which opens up long-term overseas business opportunities [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the health consumption sector, with its main businesses including health consumer products and medical supplies. The consumer goods segment accounted for 52% of revenue in 2023, while medical supplies made up 48% [15][18]. Consumer Goods Business - The consumer goods segment is expected to continue its healthy growth trajectory, supported by product innovation and effective marketing strategies. Key products such as sanitary napkins and cotton soft towels are driving this growth. The company has established a comprehensive channel strategy that optimizes offline store structures, contributing to sales and improving channel profitability [2][3][15]. Medical Supplies Business - The medical supplies segment has seen significant fluctuations in revenue and profit in the past but is now entering a stable growth phase. The acquisition of GRI is expected to enhance the company's overseas business capabilities. The company anticipates continued growth in high-end medical dressings and surgical packs, with the self-owned brand gaining recognition in domestic markets [3][15]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach approximately 9.09 billion yuan in 2024, 11.12 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.52 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 22.3%, and 12.6%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 28.9% in 2024 and 41.6% in 2025 [4][5][18]. Stock Performance and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is currently around 218 billion yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 21 times for 2025. The target market capitalization is estimated to be around 280 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 25% to 30% [4][6].