XJZY(002332) 民生证券·2025-02-27 01:35Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the steroid hormone industry, with a robust growth trend expected to resume in 2024 after overcoming collection risks [1][2]. - The company has demonstrated consistent profit growth over 35 consecutive quarters, indicating strong business resilience [1]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6% for the company's formulation business from 2024 to 2026, driven by the clearance of collection risks and the launch of specialty products [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Collection Risk Clearance and Performance Recovery - The company has effectively navigated the challenges posed by collection policies, with a significant recovery in performance anticipated starting in 2024 [1][14]. - The formulation business has faced temporary setbacks due to high baseline products affected by collection policies, but these impacts are expected to diminish [1][14]. 2. Formulation Business - The impact of collection policies on high baseline products has largely been resolved, paving the way for growth in low baseline products [2][25]. - The company has several complex and hard-to-generate products that are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the short to medium term [3][25]. - The report anticipates a 10.6% revenue growth for the formulation business from 2024 to 2026, supported by the introduction of new products and the recovery of existing ones [2][25]. 3. Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) - The company’s API business is expected to stabilize as the inventory destocking cycle among downstream customers comes to an end [3][25]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its product offerings and increasing its share in high-end markets, with a projected CAGR of 6.2% for the API business from 2024 to 2026 [3][25]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 633 million, 727 million, and 847 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 14.9%, and 16.5% [5][3]. - The report suggests that 2024 will mark a turning point for the company, allowing it to return to a stable growth trajectory [3][5].