Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Shengmu [8][10]. Core Views - China Shengmu is the largest organic raw milk producer in China, focusing on upstream ranch operations and benefiting from a strong partnership with Mengniu Dairy, which holds a 29.99% stake in the company [3][8]. - The high-end organic milk market is expanding due to consumer upgrades driven by rising income levels and the emergence of a new middle class [5][30]. - The company has a unique geographical advantage in the Ulan Buh Desert, which enhances its product quality and safety, creating a competitive moat [6][65]. - The scale of operations allows the company to effectively manage risks and improve operational efficiency, particularly in the face of fluctuating feed prices [7][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Shengmu was founded in 2009 and became the first global organic raw milk stock listed in Hong Kong in 2014. The company has shifted its focus to organic raw milk production since 2018, partnering with Mengniu to enhance operational efficiency [18][21]. - The company operates a fully organic supply chain, from pasture planting to milk processing, and has received dual certification for organic standards from China and the EU [18][69]. Market Potential - The report highlights that the average per capita consumption expenditure in China has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.96% from 2010 to 2023, indicating a strong foundation for high-end milk consumption [30]. - Organic milk is becoming a popular choice among consumers due to its higher quality standards and health benefits, with the market for organic products in China expected to grow significantly [37][47]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency by focusing on large-scale ranching, which reduces the risk of disease and allows for better cost management [7][52]. - The report notes that the proportion of organic raw milk sales has increased from 41.4% in 2019 to 77% in 2023, contributing to improved profitability [25][78]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are expected to be -80 million, -20 million, and 291 million yuan, respectively, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [8]. - The report estimates that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 will be 6 times, reflecting the company's growth potential in the organic milk sector [8].
中国圣牧：沙漠有机得天独厚，绑定蒙牛共享成长-20250227