西上海：内生增长+外延扩张，拓展零部件新格局-20250227

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on its business but has promising long-term expansion opportunities through acquisitions [3] - The company reported a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.87%, while net profit decreased by 39.45% to 63 million yuan [2] - The company has established a comprehensive logistics service model for the automotive sector, serving major clients such as Xpeng, BYD, and Great Wall [2] - The company is actively expanding its automotive parts manufacturing business, acquiring an 83.401% stake in Wuhan Yuanfeng Automotive Parts Co., which adds new products to its portfolio [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.415 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [7] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 430 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 64.7% compared to the previous year [6][7] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 19.3% for 2024, down from 23.2% in 2023 [6][7] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.415 billion, 1.528 billion, and 1.608 billion yuan respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 430 million, 460 million, and 500 million yuan respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.32 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.37 yuan by 2026 [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 54.03 for 2024, decreasing to 46.48 by 2026 [6][7] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 2.305 billion yuan [1]