捷昌驱动跟踪点评报告：线性驱动龙头，人形机器人打开第二成长曲线

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company, Jiechang Drive, is a leader in linear drives in China, with a stable main business and a new growth curve opened by humanoid robots [1][2] - The linear drive business is in a market worth billions, with global expansion and product diversification contributing to steady growth [2][3] - The humanoid robot segment is projected to reach a market size of approximately 56.8 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 35% from 2023 to 2030 [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Traditional Main Business - Jiechang Drive is the leading domestic player in linear drives, serving sectors such as office, medical, home, and industrial applications. From 2019 to 2023, the revenue CAGR was 21%, while the net profit CAGR was -7%, with a geometric ROE of 9% [1] Second Growth Curve - The company has established a humanoid research team and formed a joint venture, Zhejiang Lingjie Robot, holding 43% of the shares, focusing on key components like dexterous hands and joint modules, thus opening new growth opportunities [1][3] Linear Drive Business - The global market for linear drive products in smart offices reached 3.55 billion USD in 2022, with a CAGR of 7% from 2019 to 2022. The company benefits from trends such as the return to offline work and an emphasis on healthy office environments [2] Humanoid Robot Market - The strategic partnership with Lingqiao Intelligent aims to develop core components for humanoid robots, with the first product, DexHand, featuring 19 degrees of freedom and 23 sensors, entering mass production [3][12] - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with a potential market size of 100 billion yuan if demand continues to rise [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 339 million, 508 million, and 637 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 49, 32, and 26 [4][5]