本周观点 业 研 究 行 行业周报 2025 年工业机器人产量有望突破 70 万台 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ——机械设备行业周报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： 宁前羽 | | SAC NO： | | | | | S1150522070001 | | | | | 2025 年 | 12 | 月 17 | 日 | | 机械设备 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 宁前羽 | |  行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ningqy@bhzq.com | | （1）11 | | 月销售各类叉车 | | 11.97 | | | 万台，同比增长 | | 14.1%。 | | | ...

行 行业月报 业 研 究 继续关注工程机械、机器人板块投资机会 ——机械设备行业 12 月投资策略展望 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2025 年 12 月 4 日 机械设备 投资要点： 行情回顾 宁前羽 ningqy@bhzq.com 022-23839174 重点品种推荐 | 中联重科 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 恒立液压 | 增持 | | 捷昌驱动 | 增持 | | 豪迈科技 | 增持 | 近半年行业指数走势图 2025 年 11 月 2 日-2025 年 12 月 2 日，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.86%，申万机 械设备行业下跌 3.67%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.81 个百分点，在申万所有一级 行业中位于第 24 位。 截至 2025 年 12 月 2 日，申万机械设备行业市盈率（PE，TTM）为 43.59 倍，相对于沪深 300 的估值溢价率为 210.68%。 个股方面，涨幅居前的有大鹏工业（517.22%）、精创电气（330.74%）、航 天动力（57.78%）、华丰股份（42.90%）、工大高科（36.76%），其中大鹏 工业 11 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [2][29]. Core Views - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in October, with continued growth in excavator and loader sales. The demand growth logic is clear, supported by favorable domestic construction activity. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand and effective investment, which is expected to boost the industry further as key projects are implemented and equipment renewal policies deepen [2][29]. - The overseas market is also showing promise, with major regions maintaining high levels of construction activity. Recent tariff disruptions have weakened, and leading domestic machinery companies are accelerating their overseas market expansion. Chinese construction machinery products are competitive in terms of technology maturity and cost-effectiveness, making international market development a key focus for the industry [2][29]. Industry News - In October, China's construction machinery import and export trade amounted to USD 4.844 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%. The export value was USD 4.668 billion, up 1.29% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 24.2% to USD 176 million [10][11]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery in October was 45.56%, a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, with significant growth in the operating rates of lifting equipment [11][10]. - The rental rate index for aerial work platforms in October was 660 points, showing a slight month-on-month decline but a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [10][11]. Company Announcements - China Railway Signal & Communication Corp won ten significant projects from September to October, with a total bid amount of approximately RMB 2.539 billion, which is about 7.82% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [19][20]. - Jin Di Precision Machinery and Dong Pei Industrial signed a strategic cooperation letter of intent to explore collaboration in humanoid robot components [21]. Market Review - From November 19 to November 25, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.70%, while the machinery equipment sector declined by 2.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.60 percentage points [22][23]. - As of November 25, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 30.33 times, with a valuation premium of 131.21% compared to the CSI 300 [23].

捷昌驱动所属申万行业为：机械设备-自动化设备-工控设备。所属概念板块包括：灵巧手、人形机器 人、汽车零部件、智能家居、机器人概念等。 截至9月30日，捷昌驱动股东户数5.01万，较上期增加19.50%；人均流通股7634股，较上期减少 16.32%。2025年1月-9月，捷昌驱动实现营业收入30.35亿元，同比增长18.19%；归母净利润3.80亿元， 同比增长29.63%。 分红方面，捷昌驱动A股上市后累计派现6.85亿元。近三年，累计派现2.80亿元。 11月24日，捷昌驱动盘中上涨2.02%，截至13:13，报34.84元/股，成交9926.60万元，换手率0.75%，总 市值134.40亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入734.51万元，特大单买入791.56万元，占比7.97%，卖出240.90万元，占 比2.43%；大单买入1888.40万元，占比19.02%，卖出1704.55万元，占比17.17%。 捷昌驱动今年以来股价涨42.73%，近5个交易日跌1.41%，近20日跌10.96%，近60日跌14.96%。 今年以来捷昌驱动已经4次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为3月13日，当日龙虎榜净买 ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme for 2026 is transitioning from extreme growth to balanced allocation, focusing on sectors with strong performance potential [3][11] - In the technology sector, the report highlights that industries related to artificial intelligence and embodied intelligence are expected to experience a slowdown in profit growth after rapid valuation increases, suggesting a focus on segments with relatively low historical valuations and strong earnings support [3][11] - For traditional industries, the report recommends focusing on upstream sectors benefiting from "AI+" enhancements and profit recovery opportunities following capacity clearance driven by anti-involution policies [3][11] Group 2 - The report identifies a potential recovery in downstream consumer sectors during the 2026-2027 inventory cycle, alongside a gradual return of long-term capital to the market, suggesting a sustained allocation window for industries such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and duty-free concepts [3][11] - The recommended top ten stocks for 2026 include: 300568.SZ Xingyuan Material, 601233.SH Tongkun Co., 603755.SH Richen Co., 300442.SZ Runze Technology, 688303.SH Daqian Energy, 002920.SZ Desay SV, 688041.SH Haiguang Information, 603993.SH Luoyang Molybdenum, 603583.SH Jiechang Drive, and 002027.SZ Focus Media [4][13] - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation for the recommended stocks, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 [16]

Key Points - The mechanical sector has seen a significant increase of 30.12% as of November 20, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.11 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 sectors [5][14]. - The lithium battery equipment, basic components, and semiconductor equipment sub-sectors have shown strong growth, with increases of 103.2%, 58.93%, and 48.05% respectively [5][14]. - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the mechanical industry, highlighting a new investment cycle and growth opportunities [5][6]. Mechanical Sector Performance - As of November 20, 2025, the mechanical sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 36.1, placing it in the 70.5 percentile of its 10-year historical range, indicating a higher valuation compared to historical averages [19][20]. - Among 632 listed companies in the mechanical sector, 549 have seen stock price increases in 2025, with a median increase of 30.23% [21][24]. New Recovery Cycle: Traditional Machinery Upgrading - The engineering machinery sector is entering a new equipment renewal cycle starting in 2025, driven by the aging of existing equipment and export expansion [25][28]. - Major products in the engineering machinery sector, such as excavators and loaders, have shown positive sales growth, with excavator sales reaching 192,135 units in the first ten months of 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase [28][29]. - The internationalization of engineering machinery is accelerating, with exports becoming a significant growth driver, as evidenced by excavator exports accounting for 53.21% of total sales in October 2025 [40][43]. New Technology Growth: Emerging Industries - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing a recovery, with mass production expected to drive significant market expansion [7][20]. - The AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) equipment sector is poised for rapid growth, benefiting from the fast development of the artificial intelligence industry [9][27]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is witnessing a rebound, with leading companies like Xian Dao Intelligent expected to benefit from the growing demand for solid-state battery equipment [9][35]. Investment Ratings and Key Targets - The report recommends key companies in the engineering machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG, as primary investment targets due to their strong performance and growth potential [5][54]. - The focus on core components such as pumps, valves, and hydraulic cylinders is also emphasized as part of the investment strategy [54].

Group 1: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general adjustment with all major indices declining, with the STAR 50 index showing the largest drop of 2.13% [2] - As of November 18, the margin trading balance in the two markets was 24,948.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.67 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading decreased by 3.91% to 437,462 [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Machinery and Equipment - In October, the production of industrial robots in China increased by 17.90% year-on-year, with a monthly output of 57,900 units, and the cumulative output for the first ten months reached approximately 602,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.80% [8] - The construction machinery sector is expected to maintain growth due to favorable downstream demand driven by infrastructure projects and a reduction in tariff disturbances [7][8] - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "optimistic," with a focus on domestic brands gaining market share [5][8] Group 3: Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw a recovery in revenue and net profit, with a notable increase in gross and net profit margins [9] - The chemical pharmaceutical sector reported a revenue of 1237.44 billion yuan, with a net profit of 114.64 billion yuan, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [9][10] - The medical device sector showed signs of recovery, with Q3 revenue reaching 604.49 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 5.1% year-on-year [11]

Core Points - The company has completed the fundraising project for digital system upgrades and production line intelligent transformation, and all raised funds have been fully utilized [2][7] - The company has decided to terminate the special fundraising account related to this project as it is no longer in use [8] Fundraising Project Overview - The fundraising project involved a non-public issuance of 24,392,247 shares at a price of 60.88 yuan per share, raising a total of 1,485 million yuan, with a net amount of 1,461.32 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [2][3] - The funds were managed under a special account system to ensure proper usage and compliance with relevant regulations [3][4] Fund Usage and Management - The company has adhered to the established management methods for the use of raised funds, ensuring that funds are used specifically for the intended project [3][4] - The project has undergone a delay in its construction period, which was extended to December 2023 due to macroeconomic conditions and operational considerations [5][6] Project Completion and Account Closure - The digital system upgrade and production line intelligent transformation project has been completed, enhancing the company's digital management and manufacturing efficiency [7] - The special fundraising account for this project has a balance of 0 yuan, leading to its closure and the termination of the corresponding three-party supervision agreement [8]

重要内容提示： 本次拟结项募集资金投资项目：数字化系统升级与产线智能化改造项目。 证券代码：603583 证券简称：捷昌驱动 公告编号：2025-058 浙江捷昌线性驱动科技股份有限公司 关于部分募投项目结项并注销相关募集资金专项账户的 公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 （一）募集资金的管理情况 为了规范募集资金的管理和使用，提高资金使用效率，保护投资者权益， 本公司按照《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上海证券 交易所股票上市规则》及《上海证券交易所上市公司募集资金管理办法》等有 关法律、法规和规范性文件的规定，结合公司实际情况，制定了《浙江捷昌线 性驱动科技股份有限公司募集资金管理办法》（以下简称《管理办法》）。根 据《管理办法》，公司对募集资金实行专户存储制度，以便于募集资金的管理 和使用以及对其使用情况进行监督，保证募集资金专款专用。 （二）募集资金三方监管协议的签订和履行情况 公司与保荐机构北京证券有限责任公司（原"瑞信证券（中国）有限公司， 以下简称"北京证券"）于 2020 年 ...

Core Points - The company has completed the implementation of the "Digital System Upgrade and Production Line Intelligent Transformation Project" funded by a private placement of shares [1] - The total amount of funds raised for the project was 213.4574 million yuan, and the balance in the fundraising account is now 0.00 yuan [1] - The company has canceled the special account for the raised funds, and the corresponding tripartite supervision agreement has been terminated [1]