Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of HKD 9.66 to 10.87, indicating a potential upside of 19% to 33% from the current stock price of HKD 9.27 [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic spicy snack food market, with over 95% of its revenue coming from flavored noodle products and vegetable products. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 4.87 billion, with flavored noodle products contributing 52.3% and vegetable products 43.5% [1][19]. - The spicy snack food market has been expanding, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2016 to 2021, and the market size reached CNY 172.9 billion in 2021. The competitive landscape remains fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 11.5% of the market share [2][3]. - The company has adopted a branding, big product, and omnichannel strategy, which has allowed it to maintain a competitive edge amid industry changes. The company has reduced reliance on traditional retail channels, with traditional channels now accounting for less than 50% of sales [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized as the largest spicy snack food enterprise in China, with a history of over 20 years. It has expanded its product range to include vegetable and bean products, achieving significant revenue growth [14][15]. - The company operates five production bases, with a total design capacity of 340,000 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 55.3% as of 2023 [23][26]. Industry Analysis - The spicy snack food market is characterized by a large market capacity but a fragmented structure. The market share of the leading company, the report's subject, is 6.2% [2][35]. - The industry is undergoing significant changes in distribution channels, with a shift towards online and new retail formats, which has increased competition and required suppliers to adapt their product offerings and pricing strategies [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to have strong growth momentum over the next three years, with expected revenues of CNY 6.11 billion, CNY 7.10 billion, and CNY 8.17 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing growth rates of 25.5%, 16.2%, and 15.0% [5][6]. - The net profit is expected to reach CNY 1.14 billion, CNY 1.32 billion, and CNY 1.52 billion over the same period, with growth rates of 29.4%, 16.2%, and 14.7% [5][6].
卫龙美味：辣味休闲食品龙头，品类品牌模式强化发展动能-20250227