SUN PAPER(002078) 中泰证券·2025-02-27 16:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to see profit improvement in the first half of 2025, driven by price increases in cultural paper and a decrease in average costs of pulp [6]. - The company's integrated operations in forestry, pulp, and paper are expected to enhance cost advantages, with significant land holdings in Laos [6]. - The report projects revenue growth for the company, with estimated revenues of 40,739 million yuan in 2024, 42,694 million yuan in 2025, and 44,444 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 3%, 5%, and 4% respectively [3][6]. Summary by Sections Basic Information - Total shares outstanding: 2,794.54 million - Circulating shares: 2,775.31 million - Market price: 13.62 yuan - Market capitalization: 38,061.57 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 39,544 million yuan in 2023, with a slight decline of 1% from the previous year, and is projected to grow to 40,739 million yuan in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3,086 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 10%, and is expected to reach 3,125 million yuan in 2024 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.20 yuan in 2025 [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that the cultural paper prices have recently hit historical lows but are expected to recover following price increase notices issued after the Spring Festival [6]. - Pulp prices have shown signs of recovery, with recent increases of 20 USD per ton from major suppliers, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company’s profitability is likely to improve in the first half of 2025, with ongoing expansion in production capacity contributing to revenue growth [6]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's strategic advantages in the integrated supply chain of forestry, pulp, and paper [6].