HKEX(00388) 浙商证券·2025-02-28 00:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - In 2024, Hong Kong Exchanges achieved a revenue of HK13.050 billion, up 10% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a significant net profit increase of 46% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher trading volumes in the spot and derivatives markets as well as increased investment income [1][4] - The report highlights a notable improvement in trading volumes, particularly in the spot market, where the average daily trading volume increased by 26% year-on-year. The stock connect programs also saw significant growth, with daily trading volumes increasing by 55% and 39% for Hong Kong and mainland China respectively [2] - The report projects a net profit growth of 10% for 2024, benefiting from increased trading volumes and investment income, with expected net profit growth rates of 20%, 10%, and 10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][11] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by business lines showed a year-on-year growth of 15% for the spot market, a decline of 5% for derivatives, a growth of 27% for commodities, 3% for data and connectivity, and 15% for company projects [1] - Revenue from trading and trading system usage fees grew by 18%, while listing fees decreased by 3%. Settlement and clearing fees increased by 21% [1] Trading Activity - The report notes that the trading activity in the derivatives market improved, with a slight revenue increase of 2% in 2024. The trading income from structured products also saw a 3% increase, a significant recovery compared to a 10% decline in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The commodities market remained active, with trading fees from LME and LME Clear increasing by 33% and 30% respectively, attributed to an 18% rise in average daily trading volumes [2] Fundraising and Listings - In 2024, the number of new listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 71, a decrease of 2 from 2023, but the total fundraising amount increased by 90%, primarily due to the listing of Midea Group, which was the largest IPO in Hong Kong since February 2021 [3] - The report also mentions that the number of new derivative warrants and structured products listed increased by 43% in the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates an expected EPS of HK13.62, and HK471.01, based on a 38 times P/E ratio [4][11]