新宝股份：Q4外销延续快速增长，期待国补带动内销改善-20250228

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 21.36 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up 7.5% year-over-year [1][3]. - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 4.13 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit of 270 million CNY, up 9.9% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the national subsidy policy for replacing old appliances, which may improve domestic sales in the near future [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 external sales continued to grow rapidly, with a year-over-year increase of 14.1%, driven by strong demand for small home appliances and expansion into new product categories [2]. - Domestic sales faced short-term pressure, with a year-over-year decline of 11.2% in Q4, attributed to a lackluster consumer environment in the domestic small appliance market [2]. - The company's Q4 net profit margin improved to 6.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to cost reduction measures and favorable exchange rate effects [2]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the company are projected to be 1.29 CNY, 1.42 CNY, and 1.62 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated to be 15 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [3][4].