Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - The company, as a leading player in the mattress industry, is expected to benefit from the current home furnishing subsidies, which are likely to enhance industry demand and improve market dynamics. The company's retail transformation and marketing strategy optimization are anticipated to broaden its customer base and increase market share [2][4][8]. Industry Overview - The mattress industry is characterized by low concentration and is projected to reach approximately 79 billion yuan in 2024, nearly matching the scale of 2018. The market share of the company is estimated to be around 6% in 2023, with a trend of increasing share. The overall concentration of the mattress industry (CR4) is about 19% in 2023, compared to 45% in the U.S. in 2020, indicating room for growth [4][16][21]. Company Profile - The company is a mid-to-high-end mattress brand, focusing on a comprehensive range of sleep-related products. In the first half of 2024, the revenue breakdown is expected to be 47% from mattresses, 30% from bed frames, 8% from sofas, and 6% from bedding products. The company operates through four main divisions, each targeting specific market segments [5][42][45]. Retail Transformation - The company is enhancing its retail strategy by broadening its price range and optimizing channel management. The main price range for mattresses is between 6,000 to 15,000 yuan offline and 3,000 to 5,000 yuan online. The company is also focusing on multi-channel strategies to capture traffic, with e-commerce revenue growth of 29% in 2023 and 35% in the first half of 2024 [6][52][59]. Product Innovation - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, particularly in smart mattresses, which have seen sales exceed 100 million yuan in 2024. The penetration rate of smart mattresses in China remains low, suggesting significant growth potential [6][41]. International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing international growth opportunities through cross-border e-commerce and acquisitions of overseas brands, which are expected to contribute to its revenue growth [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 5.58 billion yuan and a net profit of 800 million yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% and 30% respectively since 2018. The projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 810 million yuan and 890 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 1% and 10% respectively [5][59].
慕思股份深度：日就月将，品牌为王