HKEX(00388) 华泰证券·2025-02-28 05:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 411.00 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q24 performance met expectations, with revenue and net profit reaching HKD 63.8 billion and HKD 37.8 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 31% and 46% [1]. - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in 4Q24 was HKD 186.9 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 105% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain high profitability in 1Q25 due to continued market enthusiasm and a sufficient IPO pipeline [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trading Business - 4Q24 trading revenue was HKD 37.4 billion, exceeding previous expectations, primarily due to a higher proportion of small transactions leading to a higher effective trading fee rate [2]. - The ADT for Hong Kong stocks increased significantly to HKD 186.9 billion, with derivatives and commodities showing mixed performance [2]. IPO Activity - The number of IPOs in 4Q24 rose to 26, with total financing amounting to HKD 32.4 billion, indicating a healthy IPO environment [3]. - The IPO queue reached 114 companies, suggesting a robust pipeline for future listings [3]. Investment Performance - The investment scale increased to HKD 238.6 billion by the end of 4Q24, although the overall investment yield declined to 2.1% [4]. - The company anticipates a gradual decrease in investment yields due to lower interest rates, but still expects to maintain reasonable returns in the short term [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to HKD 13.9 billion and HKD 13.3 billion, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook based on active trading conditions [5]. - The target price has been revised upwards to HKD 411.00 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method [5].